Redispatch Curtailment Reserve: Which Wind Priority Areas Are at Risk?

Around 22% of still-undeveloped wind priority areas in Bavaria would be affected by the proposed Redispatch Curtailment Reserve. In Brandenburg, the figure is as high as 44%. That may sound like a footnote — but it isn't.

With the start of the parliamentary summer recess, the German government's "Grid Package" — and its hotly debated proposal for a Redispatch Curtailment Reserve (RCR) — has been delayed. In practical terms, the RCR means: anyone building a new plant in a grid-constrained area loses the right to compensation for lost revenues when their output is curtailed (redispatched). A significant financial risk for project developers.

We discussed which regions would be affected by this proposal in our blog back in February:We analysed which regions would be affected by the RCR in our blog back in February. Now we go deeper: how many designated wind priority areas (VR Wind) would be affected — and what does that mean for planning?

Background: 100 Planning Regions, Thousands of Wind Priority Areas

Germany has 102 planning regions that govern land use through regional and spatial plans — and that must be taken into account when planning new wind or solar parks. 78 of these regions have formally designated wind priority areas (VR Wind). A further 68 have draft designations pending. In total: around 4,000 VR Wind in force and around 7,300 VR Wind in draft across Germany.

The critical question for project developers: which of these are still undeveloped — and which would fall under the RCR? Because those are precisely the sites where developing new wind farms carries a high financial risk, should the Grid Package be passed after the summer recess.

The Data Problem: Redispatch Data Is Hard to Access

Unfortunately, only a handful of grid operators publish redispatch data in a format that is usable by third parties. The following analysis is therefore limited to federal states where data is available for more than 50% of the state's territory.

What the Numbers Show

In absolute terms, Bavaria dominates: 158 affected areas in force, 240 in draft — roughly one in five designated, undeveloped sites in each category. And that only counts areas where more than 3% of generated energy is being curtailed (see Figure 1). In many regions, curtailment is already running at 2–3%. If those figures cross the 3% threshold in the next year or two, roughly every third undeveloped VR Wind in Bavaria could be affected.

Brandenburg is particularly striking. There, 44% of undeveloped in-force VR Wind would be affected (18 out of 41) — but only 7% of draft VR Wind (3 out of 44). An unusually large gap.

Almost as if grid operators and planning regions had coordinated to place new designations in more grid-friendly locations. That would be welcome — but it's probably just coincidence. In Schleswig-Holstein, the ratio is reversed: 6% of in-force areas are affected, but 14% of draft areas. There is no consistent pattern.

And that's precisely the problem: there should be one. As long as new VR Wind are designated without systematically accounting for redispatch load, planning regions risk creating sites that the RCR makes economically unviable — before a single turbine has been erected. The result: the expansion of renewables gets ground up between grid optimisation and planning law.

If the RCR comes into force, mandatory coordination between grid operators and planning regions will be essential. But the more sensible path is to focus on strengthening the grid itself: faster infrastructure build-out and greater flexibility through battery storage. Hundreds of gigawatts of storage capacity are already planned — and waiting for grid connection.

What This Means for You as a Project Developer

Before committing to a VR Wind site: check whether it would likely fall under the RCR. In dvlp, you can see at a glance which wind priority areas — in force or in draft — sit in grid-constrained zones, and how severe historical redispatch has been over the past three years.

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